Our climate is changing at an unprecedented rate. Ecological impacts of the recent climate change have been identified, especially in terms of species distribution, extinction of populations and species and biodiversity. The urgent need to accurately forecast, qualitatively and quantitatively, the ecological impacts of global change is now obvious if we are to anticipate the consequences for land use, the management of pests and invasive, as well as conservation. Forecasting the ecological impacts of climate change implies knowledge on the mechanisms linking environmental shift, organism physiology and behavior, population dynamics and ultimately food web structure and ecosystem functioning.

The aim of the project is to establish a mechanistic framework, based on biophysical modeling, that allows to determine the amplitude of micro-climatic change driven by a regional climate change, and to predict the net consequences of micro-climatic change on animal population dynamics by integrating direct effects on individuals and indirect effects of microclimatic change via their influence on biotic interactions (e.g., competition, herbivory). This approach will allow us to determine whether organisms have, and exploit the possibility to move within local spatial scales in order to buffer against a global/regional change. We will apply this framework to a biological model of high importance in agronomy, due to its economical impact the apple tree – red spider mite relationships.

Moreover my aim is to compare statistical with biophysical modeling for their forecasting aptitude.
Climate change, Statistical modelling, Biotic interactions

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Mail: amelie.ezanic@univ-tours.fr
2012-present: study engineer – MicroCliMite project: Cascading from global to micro-climate: Thermal budgets of a plant-herbivore interaction. IRBI (France)
2010-2011: Statistics master degree. Université de Rennes II (France)
2009-2011: Agronomic Engineer degree.  AgroCampus (France)

Cascading from global to micro-climate: Thermal budgets of a plant-herbivore interaction

Amélie Ezanic People